According to the report of research firm DFC Intelligence, the Nintendo Switch will sell 40 million systems in three years. This is a conservative estimate, taking into account Nintendo’s recent track record and poor launch library. However, they expect sales to pick up once the holiday season kicks in. In comparison, the PlayStation 4 sold 50 million in the same amount of time.
Nintendo official announced that they have 2 million units ready for launch day, but haven’t made any long-term sales estimates. Two million is fairly modest, and, coupled with the slim number of launch titles, it’ll stop the Switch from having a strong launch. However, there is a potential silver lining
Demand is expected to be strong and the major issue will be whether the system can attract a broad audience starting in the holiday sales season of 2017.
Nintendo’s family-friendly approach to gaming will certainly help its sales around Christmas. David Cole of DFC further explained how they came to their predictions.
The Switch is a compelling piece of hardware that could potentially reach a much larger addressable market. However, given the limited software and Nintendo’s poor recent track record of introducing new products, we have tempered our forecasts to be conservative.
Not a lot of trust left for Nintendo, sadly. Some analysts, like Dr. Serkan Toto, believe that only die-hard Nintendo fans are going to buy the Switch. One thing is for sure: Gamers are not at all happy with what Nintendo’s doing. While the study relies on Nintendo’s wide appeal and brand recognition among “casual” audiences, it doesn’t factor in other problems.
The Switch is severely underpowered compared to its competition. True, it’s a fairly powerful portable system, but there are smartphones of similar capabilities. Not to mention that the $300 price tag has many hidden expenses, since Switch accessories are very expensive and there are no games in the bundle. When you factor everything in, it’s much cheaper to buy a PS 4 with a bundled game, because it has a better subscription system, more powerful hardware and wide library.
Good luck out there, Nintendo.